BIG inflation about to hit? Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
Jun 23, 2025
∙ Paid
(This is Part-8; for Part-7, go here)
As I write this, Iran is considering shutting down the Strait, which is the route and the chokepoint for 20% of the oil shipped daily around the world.
By the time you read this, the shut-down may have already happened. If not, Iran could make that move at ANY time.
What would happen to US oil prices?
Obviously, they would go up. No one knows how high. The cost would rise, for the US consumer, of every product that depends on being transported from place to place, with imported oil being the fuel.
There is no simple way out of that hole.
Drill, baby, drill works to ramp up the US supply, but it takes months, not days, to open up thousands of old wells and go for new ones.
As for importing oil, the US is part of the global oil pricing system. Meaning: the price of a barrel of oil is pegged to certain markers or benchmarks, and nations have agreed to this apparatus. So even if US oil is being shipped here from, say, nearby Canada, the price is the price. If the global price goes up, so does the price from Canada.
If the US, Mexico, and Canada decided to break off from the global pricing system and set their own price, they would face enormous pressure from many other countries, plus all sorts of regulations and treaty agreements would have to be canceled. The governments of the US, Canada, and Mexico would be intervening in their own domestic economies by fixing the price of oil, nationalizing parts of their oil industries, and limiting exports. Not likely to happen.
One solution?